分析称船公司11月运价上调难落地，美线即期运价回落

By Gavin van Marle

30 October 2026

Container spot freight rates on the transpacific eastbound trade, as recorded by Drewry, saw its steepest one-week fall since June 2025 after this year’s protracted peak season came to an end.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) saw the spot rate on its Shanghai-Los Angeles decline 6% week on week, to end at $7,514 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York route was down 5%, to $9,631 per 40ft.

“Strong US import demand is easing,” Drewry noted.

“According to the US National Retail Federation, US ocean import volumes are forecast to decrease 11% month on month in November, which could put further downward pressure on freight rates,” it added.

However, in a sign that the market is in a state of flux, US forwarders reported a “stable” week, rather than one characterised by falling prices.

“Pricing carried over from last week, while space availability improved and vessel schedules became more consistent,” explained US west coast forwarder Freight Right. “As the traditional pre-holiday ocean shipping peak fully closes out, pricing has settled into a steady holding pattern across both coasts.”

However, it added that, with demand weakening and the remaining urgent pre-holiday shipments now transferring to air freight, the chances of the new general rate increase (GRI), scheduled for Sunday (1 November) – ranging from $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft depending on carrier – sticking, were diminishing.

“China-to-US ocean rates are expected to remain broadly stable through the first half of November, with the possibility of modest declines. Improving space availability and more consistent schedules suggest limited near-term upward pressure on pricing,” said Freight Right.

The WCI on the Asia-Europe was essentially flat this week, as the surprising spot rate strength in October continued.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam leg was up 1%, to $3,686 per 40ft, while Shanghai-Genoa route was held steady, at $4,151 per 40ft, although this masked some discounting by carriers keen to fill ships amid weak demand, and despite new FAK (freight all kinds) levels due to be implemented on Sunday.

These will see MSC target a spot rate of $4,500 per 40ft on Asia-North Europe, $5,000 on Asia-west Mediterranean and $5,100 on Asia-east Mediterranean, while CMA CGM is aiming for $4,900 on Asia-west Mediterranean and $5,200 on Asia-east Mediterranean ports.

However, Linerlytica this week noted: “Asia-North Europe rates remain under pressure, with carriers undermining their 1 November rate hike efforts with persistent discounts.

“Gemini carriers are offering the lowest rates in the spot market for early November shipments, with Hapag-Lloyd at $3,000-$3,200 per 40ft and Maersk at $3,200-$3,400 per 40ft.

“Their rivals at MSC, the Ocean Alliance, and Premier Alliance have reacted by lowering their rate offers to $3,400 to $3,500 per 40ft. The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed,” it added.

Meanwhile, with the Asia-Europe contract tendering season now in full swing, carriers are trying to push up spot rates that act as a guide for annual rate negotiations, and yesterday announced another set of FAK increases for 15 November, with MSC upping its Asia-North Europe spot rate to $4,600, and to $5,300 per 40ft on West Mediterranean destinations, and CMA CGM aiming for $5,500 per 40ft on Asia-west Med shipments.

According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, four blanked sailings have been announced for next week, down from eight this week, as the analysts also doubted success for the new FAK levels.

“Given available capacity and weak demand, it remains uncertain whether these increases will hold. Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week,” it said.