Prologis 三季度业绩超预期，再度上调开发项目预期

Logistics warehouse operator Prologis beat third-quarter expectations Thursday before the market opened and significantly raised its outlook for new developments.

Prologis (NYSE: PLD) reported consolidated revenue of $2.39 billion for the quarter, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase and topping consensus estimates by 8%. Core funds from operations (FFO) of $1.60 per share were 11 cents higher y/y and 3 cents better than analysts’ expectations.

Lease signings in the period totaled 60 million square feet of space for the San Francisco-based real estate investment trust. Leases commenced totaled 55.9 million square feet, a 15% y/y decline.

Average occupancy improved 30 basis points y/y to 95.1%, 10 bps higher than in the second quarter. It ended the quarter at 95.6% occupancy.

Net effective rent change on Prologis’ portfolio of multiyear leases was 38%, near the company’s full-year goal of 40%.

“Customers are running lean on inventory, and excess capacity within their networks has largely cleared,” said CEO Dan Letter. “We see healthy demand supported by e-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the build-out of the data center supply chain.”

Table: Prologis’ key performance indicators

Lease mark-to-market (resetting in-place rents to current market rents) was estimated at 16%, or $780 million in future net operating income, the company said on a Thursday call with analysts. The number doesn’t include future increases in inflation or rents.

Management said net absorption—leased space less the amount of space vacated—was 63 million square feet in the U.S. during the third quarter. That was in line with its annual expectation for net absorption of 230 million to 240 million square feet. It said new facility starts have moderated given elevated construction costs, general cost inflation and higher interest rates.

Prologis’ portfolio outperformed the U.S. market, which carried a 7.1% vacancy rate in the period, down from a 7.5% peak. Market rents improved 50 bps in the period, a third consecutive quarter of rent growth. Prologis expects rents on logistics properties to outpace inflation.

The outlook for full-year 2026 core FFO was narrowed to a range of $6.25 to $6.29 per share, a 1-cent increase at the midpoint. The guide assumes average occupancy of 95.25% to 95.5% (25 bps lower at the high end of the range) and development starts between $5 billion and $5.75 billion (an 8% increase at the midpoint). The company previously raised its outlook for development starts by $1 billion in conjunction with its second-quarter report.

“Our financial results reflect another quarter of strong operating performance and disciplined capital allocation,” said Chief Financial Officer Tim Arndt. “That performance, together with the strength of our balance sheet, gives us the capacity and flexibility to continue investing in growth even in a higher interest rate environment.”

That growth plan includes the addition of London-based logistics warehouse operator Segro (LSE.SGRO).

Segro’s board agreed to Prologis’ $18.8-billion, best-and-final takeover offer in July. The combination will expand Prologis’ European footprint by nearly 50% to 363 million square feet. The combined entity will have $269 billion of assets under management.

“On SEGRO, shareholder approval was an important milestone in bringing our two companies together,” Letter said. “We look forward to completing the transaction and expanding our platform in Europe, increasing the scale at which we can serve customers.”

Shares of PLD were down 2.4% at 2:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday compared to the S&P 500, which was up 0.1%

Why it matters? Prologis’ third-quarter performance and development starts forecast reflect normalized inventory levels and robust demand from the e-commerce, advanced manufacturing and data center sectors. The company’s Segro acquisition will significantly expand its global footprint and infrastructure capacity to better serve international supply chains.

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