恶劣天气叠加关税，美洲间贸易逆差进一步扩大

The easing of restrictions on Panama Canal transits has brought some relief to exporters in South America, but other headwinds remain, which could accelerate the widening gap between imports and exports.

This month, Seaboard Marine is expanding its West Coast South America service to the US East Coast with a call at Gloucester City. The first arrival at the New Jersey port is scheduled for 25 October.

According to the carrier, this offers shippers in Chile, Peru, and Ecuador enhanced connectivity to the US north-east.

Moreover, it appears that shippers in those origin countries won’t have to worry about transiting the Panama Canal. Late last month, the canal authority (ACP) announced it would lift the restrictions on vessels moving through the neopanamax locks, bringing the number of daily transits back to 10, after a reduction of one at the beginning of September. It also increased the maximum draught by a foot to 49ft.

The cap on daily transits at older locks remains at 23 (down from 25 since mid-September), but the lifting of the neopanamax passage was prompted by improved water level and abated concerns over the impact of this year’s El Niño. Carriers and shippers had braced themselves for further cuts in transits in expectation of a predicted “Super El Niño”.

However, elsewhere in the region, weather patterns remain a headache. Warmer temperatures earlier and anticipated rain have caused Proarandanos, the Peruvian blueberry growers association, to scale back its export forecast by 4.2%, despite a 15% increase in the cultivated area this year. The new estimate falls 4.4% short of last year’s total.

Producers of grapes in northern Peru are expecting reduced production, as well as smaller fruit. The warmer conditions also affected mandarins, which reached the required internal maturity, but delayed the development of the orange skin colour favoured by some markets, particularly the US.

As a result, fruit had to be sold to alternative markets in Latin America: in one week 270 containers of mandarins were shipped to Mexico, following 71 containers a year earlier.,

Chilean producers are more concerned about Washington’s 12.5% tariff on their produce. One shipper stressed it was not “a marginal adjustment, but a concrete threat to the competitiveness of our national fruit industry”.

At margins typically between 6% and 8%, such tariffs “could wipe out a season’s profits”, he added.

In Argentina, growers of oranges and mandarins are reeling from a triple-whammy of rising costs, falling domestic consumption and loss of competitiveness in international markets. According to the Entre Rios Citrus Federation, domestic consumption is down 10% from last year, exports have shrunk 34% and prices are up 17% – below the rate of inflation.

According to the Chamber of Citrus Exporters of North-east Argentina, exports from the region used to exceed 100,000 tonnes a year, but have fallen well below this.

These developments suggest South America’s trade imbalance with the US will expand further. Data from the US Census Bureau show a discrepancy of $41.84bn over the first eight months of the year, with each month the difference exceeding the gap of 12 months earlier.

This matches the picture of South America’s overall trade. According to Maritime Analytica, maritime imports grew 8% in the first half, outpacing export growth of 3.5%. The gap widened 20%, to 1.7m teu.

Likewise, CTS data show South America’s maritime exports to North America shrank 1.1% year on year in July, whereas volume in the opposite direction expanded 7.2%. Moreover, southbound volumes have grown every month this year, whereas northbound traffic contracted every month except June.

On a positive note, the Global Liner Performance Report for September, by Sea-Intelligence, shows schedule reliability between South and North America improved in both directions in the July/August period. Southbound it rose 1.2%, to 81.2%, year on year, while northbound it recovered from a drop the previous month, climbing 5.2 percentage points from June/July, to 80.6%, up 0.8%, year on year.

The average delay for late vessels extended slightly, (up 0.09 percentage points from June/July) to 5.32 days, 1.55 days longer than a year ago. However, the average delay for all vessels shrank 0.20 days from June/July, to 1.10 days.