XPO 三季度业绩超预期：定价与运营举措推动 LTL 收入增长

XPO once again outperformed expectations, driven by higher volumes and stronger pricing that continue to amplify the impact of its operational efficiency initiatives.

XPO (NYSE: XPO) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, which was 13 cents ahead of the consensus estimate and 63 cents higher year over year. The adjusted EPS number excluded transaction and restructuring costs, among other items.

Consolidated revenue of $2.37 billion was 12% higher y/y but $10 million below analysts’ expectations.

Less-than-truckload revenue increased 17% y/y to $1.47 billion. Revenue was 9% higher excluding fuel surcharges. (Diesel fuel prices were 48% higher y/y in the quarter.)

LTL pricing is moving higher

The revenue increase in LTL was driven by a 5% y/y increase in tonnage and a 12% increase in yield (revenue per hundredweight). The tonnage result stemmed from a 6% increase in daily shipments and a 1% decline in weight per shipment. Yield (ex-fuel) increased 4% y/y, with revenue per shipment (ex-fuel) up 3% y/y.

The company’s freight mix includes more shipments from local accounts (SMBs), which are typically lighter but produce better margins. This customer segment grew by 30% y/y in the quarter.

September marked the ninth straight month of expansion for the U.S. manufacturing complex, which is a significant source of LTL freight. Management said a recent survey of its customers showed half of the respondents expect stronger demand in the first half of 2027 versus the second half of 2026.

Tonnage trends in the quarter outperformed normal seasonality.

On a y/y comparison, tonnage was up 5.8% in July, 3.7% in August and 5.4% in September. October tonnage is running 6.5% higher y/y. Tonnage growth is accelerating on a two-year-stacked comparison after turning positive in September (+0.7%) and rising 2.7% so far in October. The prior-year comparisons are slightly easier in November and December.

The y/y growth rate for yield (ex-fuel) in the third quarter (+3.6%) was slightly lower than the second quarter (+4.4%). However, the second-quarter yield metric benefitted from a larger decline in weight per shipment (WPS: -1.8% in Q2 vs. -0.7% in Q3), and an increase in length of haul compared to a decline in the third quarter (LOH: +1% in Q2 vs. -1.4% in Q3). (The third quarter had some regional truckload freight in the network, which was a drag on length of haul.)

So far in October, yield (ex-fuel) is 5% higher y/y, with revenue per shipment (ex-fuel) 4% higher. Both metrics are expected to accelerate sequentially and y/y in the fourth quarter as length of haul steps higher.

“We are delivering some of the strongest yield growth in the industry,” said Ali Faghri, XPO’s chief strategy officer, on a call with FreightWaves. “When you normalize for those mix factors—weight per shipment and length of haul—our core pricing accelerated.”

Full-year OR guidance improves again

The unit booked an 80.1% adjusted operating ratio (inverse of operating margin), which was 260 basis points better y/y and in line with management’s guidance (sub-81%). The OR result was just 20 bps worse than the second quarter, handily outpacing the historical progression. The company normally sees 200 to 250 bps of OR degradation from the second to the third quarter. A variety of pricing and operating efficiency initiatives are driving the improvement.

XPO normally sees 250 bps of margin deterioration from the third to the fourth quarter, implying an 82.6% OR. However, management expects to report a sub-82% adjusted OR in the fourth quarter, which would be at least 250 bps better y/y.

It also raised its full-year margin outlook again. It entered the year guiding to 100 to 150 bps of y/y improvement. The outlook was raised on the second-quarter call in July (to at least 200 bps of improvement) and again on Thursday (to 250 bps or higher). The guide includes a 100-bp headwind from higher incentive comp, which is expected to ease next year.

It estimates it could handle a low-single- to mid-single-digit increase in shipments without adding drivers and workers.

It is carrying 30%-plus excess door capacity currently, following a 15% increase to door count over the past four years. It recently opened terminals in the Phoenix and Kansas City markets, increasing its terminal count to 300 across North America. The new locations, along with AI-led efficiency initiatives, have resulted in more direct shipping routes (fewer empty miles), more stops per hour and less freight handling.

It has also grown its trailer fleet by more than 30% and its tractor fleet by more than 20% over the past four years.

XPO’s European transportation segment reported a 5% y/y increase in revenue to $900 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $48 million was 26% higher y/y. It has grown the sales group at the unit and expects EBITDA to “meaningfully accelerate” in the fourth quarter. XPO still plans to sell the business for “the right price.”

Net debt leverage was reduced to 1.9x in the third quarter from 2.1x in the second quarter. It’s on track to double free cash flow this year to approximately $800 million. The company has already incurred the heavy capex years, funding investments in real estate, equipment and technology. It will continue to pay down debt (already within its desired leverage range of 1x to 2x) and buy back stock. It repurchased $250 million in stock this year.

LTL stocks under pressure

Shares of XPO were down 3.7% in midday trading on Thursday compared to the S&P 500, which was off 0.4%. Investors are concerned that recent earnings results have been boosted by higher fuel surcharges and that the industry’s favorable pricing fundamentals may be weakening.

XPO cited several positive demand catalysts on the Thursday quarterly call and reiterated its expectation for a multiyear double-digit rate growth cycle, which is partially idiosyncratic. Given improved operating results and lower capex needs, the company will likely use incremental cash flows to aggressively buy back stock. Less-than-truckload stocks are down roughly 20% to 30% since a near-term peak in June.

Why it matters? XPO is one of a few publicly traded LTL carriers. Its quarterly results provide insight into a subsegment of trucking where few public datasets exist.

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